18.08.2026 16:30 UTC
ความน่าจะเป็นที่เป็นธรรม (ไม่รวมส่วนต่าง)
ฟอร์ม 10 นัดล่าสุด (SStats)
ผลที่ AI ให้น้ำหนักสูงสุด: 1รายละเอียด
Örebro SK is heavily favored to defeat Sollentuna FK in this Svenska Cupen qualification fixture due to their higher-tier standing and superior squad depth. While both teams enter this single-elimination cup match in poor form, the class difference between Superettan side Örebro and Ettan (third tier) side Sollentuna remains the deciding factor.
Outcome Probabilities
P1 (Sollentuna Win): 23%
X (Draw): 22%
P2 (Örebro Win): 55%
Current Form Analysis
Sollentuna (Home): LDLDD
Sollentuna has struggled to find victories in their recent league outings, showing severe vulnerabilities at the back while registering three draws and two losses.
Örebro (Away): LLDDL
Örebro is experiencing a rough patch in the Superettan, coming off a high-scoring 3-3 draw against Brage. Despite their defensive lapses in league play, their attacking prowess remains lethal when facing lower-tier opponents.
Head-to-Head (H2H) and Missing Context
The historical record favors the visitors. In their previous official meeting in the Svenska Cupen, Örebro secured a comfortable 2-0 victory on the road.
There are no major fresh injury concerns or suspensions reported for either side. However, squad rotation is highly expected. Örebro will likely lean on their key forward Rasmus Wiedesheim-Paul, who is in excellent form after netting a brace in their last match.
Additional Markets Forecast
Total Goals: Over 2.5 (Örebro's recent matches have been highly volatile, highlighted by their latest 3-3 result).
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes (Sollentuna will take advantage of playing at home against a heavily rotated Örebro backline).
Double Chance: X2 (Örebro has the clear quality advantage to avoid a loss in 90 minutes).
Most Likely Exact Score: 1:2
Conclusion & Justification
Our analysis fully aligns with the provided market-calibrated Glicko model (P1 23% / X 22% / P2 55%). There is no reason to diverge from these probabilities because the tier gap between the Superettan and Ettan represents a massive difference in physical preparation and individual skill.
While cup matches invite surprises and Örebro's current defensive shape is shaky, their attacking output—led by Wiedesheim-Paul and Ahmed Yasin—will simply be too much for Sollentuna to handle over 90 minutes.
Main Bet: Örebro to Win (P2)
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